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New England Drought Continues

September 25th, 2010 No comments

How dry I am…

I haven’t been tracking the daily fire danger in Connecticut as I haven’t been hearing of increased fire activity. Unusual for it to be high this time of year. Checking this morning we’re split three ways:
VERY HIGH: Litchfield County
HIGH: Hartford, Tolland
MODERATE: Rest of state.

The three non-moderate counties correspond to the deeper drought shown on the maps.

A budding drought in New England

August 19th, 2010 No comments

Potential to setup a fall fire season in New England. Connecticut has been receiving just enough rain to stay as moderate fire danger, but it’s flirting with build-up being sufficient to become “high.”

August 10th Drought Map

August 17th Drought Map

Rain isn’t always good…

May 3rd, 2010 No comments

This passed through this afternoon. Fortunately low fire danger. If this had set up when active fires were burning it would have been a potentially critical situation, at least in the areas that didn’t get the down pours associated with the t-storms. At my house we just got barely enough to wet dry surfaces with a few minutes of high winds:

From a strategic point of view, crews in light fuels, like hardwood leaf litter, would probably be OK as long as they know it’s coming and consider the impact on slop over of control lines, and are ready to get into good black. Crews in brush or under potential crown fires should be advised to seek safer areas till it passes.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

CTZ003-004-MAZ005-006-012>014-RIZ001-032115-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-100503T2100Z/
TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNION...VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...
FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD
401 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS...IS GOING TO PRODUCE A BURST OF WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE A FEW TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES TO BREAK...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND ROAD
CLOSURES ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF CONNECTICUT.

ALREADY THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF TREES DOWN WITH GUSTS FROM 45 TO
55 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTH CENTRAL
CONNECTICUT BETWEEN 240 PM AND 340 PM.

THIS LINE OF SHOWERS PASSES THRU QUICKLY AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE WITHIN AN HOUR OF ITS PASSAGE.

National Fire Danger Rating System

April 25th, 2010 No comments

You can find a summary of the background of NFRDS here.

This is the simple what it means summary:

Numeric Class / Adjective Class
1 / LOW
Fires will not spread beyond heat of campfire or brush fire.
2 / MODERATE
Fires will start from open flame, camp or brush fire. Spreads slowly.
3 / HIGH
Fires will start from a lighted match and spread rapidly in dry grass, slower with moisture. Will continue to spread until extinguished.
4 / VERY HIGH
Fires will start readily from match or glowing embers and spreads rapidly as it increases in size. May crown young conifers.
5 / EXTREME
Fires start readily from sparks or cigarette butts. Spread and crown rapidly. Spot fires common. All burn fiercely and may blow up unless controlled promptly.

19 March 2010 Morning Report

March 19th, 2010 No comments

I guess I should’ve started the morning reports for this year yesterday…

We had 4″ of rain in Brooklyn, CT over this past weekend and Boston area received 10″.  Storm damage in southwestern Connecticut rivaled what they experienced in Hurricane Gloria in 1985.  All thanks to a nor’easter that sat off of Long Island for several days.

Yesterday I had to put down the camera and work as a pump operator on a grass and woods fire that consumed 5 acres of grass, 3 acres of woods, and a couple chicken coops.  More on that later.

Connecticut Fire Danger:  High.

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.  COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

CTZ004-200815-
WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFORD...PLAINFIELD...PUTNAM...
WILLIMANTIC
405 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT

CLOUD COVER           CLEAR        MCLEAR       MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0
TEMP /24H TREND/      69 (+4)      38 (+1)      69
RH % /24H TREND/      22 (-1)      89 (-3)      26
20FT WND AM /MPH/     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20FT WND PM /MPH/     W  5         LGT/VAR      W  7
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MIXING HGT /FT-AGL/   6450         70           7500
TRANSPORT WND /KTS/   W 13         SW  9        W 15
VENT RATE /KT-FT/     83850        630          112500
CWR                   0            0            0
LAL                   NO TSTMS     NO TSTMS     NO TSTMS
HAINES INDEX          5            5            4

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH...BECOMING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.

1927: Forest Fire Weather in Central Massachusetts

April 16th, 2009 No comments

Found this interesting 1927 Fire Weather Study (archive) recently, which included a couple interesting observations:

The fire records are for the following counties: Worcester County, the western half of Middlesex County, and the eastern half of Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties.  The total area of the region is approximately 1,750,000 acres, the greater part of which is included in the so-called white pine region.

This is before the 1938 Hurricane, and it would be interesting to research further if it was still considered “white pine region” after that storm.

Of all the major forest types in the Northeast, the white pine type is inherently the most hazardous.  Its leaf litter is highly inflammable because of the resin content.  The size and form of pine needles produce a duff with practically no matting but with a great deal of porosity, so that the run-off after rainfall is extremely rapid. … White pine in New England is confined generally to the poorer soil types — those composed chiefly of sand.  … Daily rainfalls of one-tenth of an inch or less do not keep the duff above the danger zone.  Even with greater amounts of precipitation, the duff moisture content does not remain above 10 per cent for long unless the rains occur at short intervals.

That’s an interesting point about how quickly pine needles dry, and makes sense compared to broad hardwood leaves which would slow the drainage of water.

There is a table that shows the distribution of forest fires between April 11 and July 10, 1927 by relative humidity.  The size of fires are surprising my modern standards:

11-15%  45 fires, 7,643 acres = 170 acres average
16-20% 140 fires, 4,059 acres =  29 acres average
21-25%  90 fires, 2,123 acres =  24 acres average
26-30%  94 fires, 1,395 acres =  15 acres average
(Fires drop off dramatically above 30%)

100+ acre fires are now quite rare, perhaps three in a bad fire season now.